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Originally Posted by jfc
CP,
I recall you once promoting TABs over Betfair.
Furthermore according to your product disclosure:
"In addition, when you purchase the RaceCensus database you also receive four free systems which show a six year profit on turnover at level stakes using only TAB prices!".
So how can you now argue the futility of trying to exploit a 10% bonus over TABs?
And unless I've missed something both Best Tote and SuperPrice (advertised here) are still available on Power Play days. So the bookie counter-measure argument is dead wrong. Obviously you churn away from any outfit that that's party-pooping this welcome price war.
Aside from all that the theoretical angle for exploiting Power Pays is compelling.
The 5.95% rake in question in theory equates to a market of 106.3%. In practice truncation makes that ~108%.
So if you can shave over 8% off you can "guarantee" a profit.
With IAS SupaDiv you can expect to shave:
2.50% = Premium over SuperTAB
3.33% = Effective Bonus on Thursday Deposits (10% on triple-rollover)
Only 2.17% to go.
So when you find you've matched on Betfair at significantly better than the TABs you can back the complementary runners at IAS for a favourable book.
One stunning example from yesterday was Miss Andretti. You would have spurned this disconcerting drifter. But $3.20 and better was readily available at Betfair. Even with the full 5% commission that's $3.09.
The market difference between $3.09 and the SuperPrice $2.80 is 3.35%.
So mission more than accomplished.
Now surely no one playing this caper needs to be told about the harsh distinction between theory and reality. But with a little effort there are many ways of improving the favourable figures above. For example I suspect that effective Bonuses far better than 3.33% can be hustled.
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jfc,
Yes I have promoted TABS over Betfair, as I have also promoted Betfair over TABS - both have advantages, both have drawbacks, which is why I use both. Betfair have also changed a lot of things since my posting on the subject, namely ease of deposit and withdrawal. What used to take up to 7 days (via account), now happens in 24 hours.
Of course if we can get a better market percentage, then everyone is better off, but it was the use of the word "exploit."
I still fail to see how a temporary correction can be exploited when the bookies are not paying the top tote price.
I did explain best tote and gave two clear examples - the bookies paid worse that STAB.
What looks good in theory, is not what often happens in practice.
If you found an angle, then that's great - I don't personally see that all things being equal, it's worth chasing pennies on very slim advantages when the advantage is fleeting (timewise).
I possibly have misunderstood what you are doing, or maybe you haven't revealed the whole picture.
With regard to Miss Andretti I backed her at no risk whatsoever.
I had matched odds early on the lay side and backed her late in betting.
On the flipside, I backed Universal Queen, not knowing that this was possibly one of the biggest plunges around Australia to actually come off in a long time that wasn't foul play but the real deal. I backed her at long odds and layed her late in betting.
For me, any market movement is good, but I have been caught with my pants down on more than one occassion
