4th February 2007, 11:43 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Interesting point of view, I have to agree with both views in a way.
The obvious class runners are more often than not poor value.
The apparent "overs" horses are often lacking in performance.
The firmers win and the drifters lose overall in the scheme of things.
The problem being, selecting the value class horses and avoiding horses that are unders.
I recently did an exercise in comparing the drifters and firmers which were favourite at fixed odds.
All horses returned $317.40 out of 322 possible bets.
Drifters returned $139.75 out of 177 possible bets.
Firmers returned $177.65 out of 145 possible bets.
Knowing the movements or anticipating them in advance is quite a difficult task, but overall it can be done to advantage.
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