Thanks to Stix , I decided to have a look at how "overlay" betting went with the ratings in January.

Firstly, I have to say that working out "overlays" is a bit tricky as I'm simply using Unitab divs for compiling these results, and as we all know, you can get better dividends elsewhere and some horses which may not be overlays on Unitab MAY be overlays with another TAB or bookie and vice versa. So keep that in mind.

Anyway, I've finished looking at all the top rated runners in January (I'll look at the lower rated horses shortly), and as I thought may be the case, backing only the top raters which were overlays, was actually not such a great idea. They did in fact return a profit, but the profit dropped from the overall figure of 13% for ALL top raters down to just 6%.

Selections 146
Wins 42 (29%)
Return $155.30
Profit 6%

In fact, have a look at the results of all the horses that you're leaving out when you back just the overlays. These were the top rated horses which were LESS than the rated price ("underlays"):

Selections 55
Wins 28 (51%)
Return $71.70
Profit 30%

So there you go. I'm not sure what that tells us. Either it means I've got my prices all wrong or else it means that these particular horses were just so far and away the best horses in these races, that they overcame any perceived lack of value. Whatever the case, I think this shows us that these horses certainly can't be ignored.

One thing I did find out though. Top rated horses which were equal to or just slightly above their rated price did not do brilliantly. HOWEVER, top rated horses with a price which was at least 50% above their rated price did very well!!! For example, if a horse's rated price was $4 and their available price was $6 or more. During January, these were the results for those horses:

Selections 33
Wins 9 (27%)
Return $56.60
Profit 71.5%

Included in those 33 selections were 5 horses with a price which was at least double their rated price (a "double overlay") and those 5 horses produced 2 nice winners and a profit of 258%!!! I guess 5 selections is too small a sample to get too excited just yet, but it is certainly food for thought.

Now another thing I looked at. Top rated horses with a rated price of $2.30 or less. Those are what I consider to be ratings "specials". Here's how they went in January:

Selections 35
Wins 21 (60%)
Placings 32 (91.5%)
Return $45.70
Profit 30.5%

Now, the interesting thing about those results was the place strike rate. With the specials being placed in 32 out of 35 races, there does certainly seem to be some scope for using them as bankers in multis.