13th February 2007, 09:24 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shaun
So if we take what you say as correct JFC then we can expect no more than a losing streak of 1 if we have a 50% strike rate?
I ran a simulation with a strike rate of 50% and odds of even money and it says i can expact to get a run of 12 outs with a max winning streak of 11, so Bhagwan figure of 7 sounds good to me.
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The magic word is median.
The maximum is irrelevant to a median.
To calculate a median you have to consider every single outcome.
You didn't disclose how many trials your simulation went through.
My simulator just gave me an LRO of 12 for 10,000 trials.
But ~5,000 trials had ZERO outs.
So the median should be pretty close to zero. |