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Old 14th February 2007, 06:47 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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One outfit developing an automated betting product, has published full results of a theoretical overlay betting splurge on the 1st Power Pay weekend.

It reported a staggering 24.29% POT from 197 bets and 22 wins.

Unfortunately there are some non-key errors in the figures, and the experiment has not been updated for the subsequent days.

I am in no position to vouch for the validity of those figures and whether they could be sustained through the 700 or so bets for the full Power Pays.

But, in rough calculations, if you bet 2% of your bank (as Kelly suggests) then you would expect to grow your bank by 0.5% every bet.

And after 700 bets the expected bank would be 32 times the original!

I'd probably be satisfied with a mere 16-fold increase.
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