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Originally Posted by shoto
Your comment about determining a true price is intriguing, and surely must be a huge key. (Not that I'm asking you to say anything about it.) That you have created a methodology that is reliable and low-risk is excellent. Good success to you!
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Shoto,
I don't want to hijack jfc's thread, so I'll answer your question and post in another thread if I need to reply to you.
Whilst there are massive variations within, it is very easy to determine the overall true prices of horses. Take whatever price guide you use and simply work out the market percentage, add that percentage to the price given of your horse, the true price will be very close to what you work out, or close enough for you to make a profit laying at less than that price.
*NB I don't use published guides etc, I only use bookies prices.
Here's some justification for my research, if you were able to back every favourite on the IAS opening fixed price, you would make around 2% POT +/-.
It is also not that hard to lay at better than the final and true prices on Betfair if you weight your bets so that you have the most money on the shortest price available.
I layed a hurdler in a 4 horse field in the U.K. last night for as low as $1.31, the last lay price before they jumped was $1.80, this makes a huge difference in the scheme of things, I had assessment that this was more than 50% less than it's true price.
It lost
The night before, a horse in a 3 mile race in a three horse field was layed at $1.12, it also lost.