AP,

I think your confusing a punter's SR with a runners SR.

A run of outs for a punter with a win SR of 40% [we wish] is completely different to a horses win SR regarding expected runs of outs.

A horse has spells and it's SR cannot be calculated over 100's of runs.

Quote ubetido: ...'my top 2 picks that have a 40% win strike rate'. I think ubetido is talking about the runner's win SR, either each or perhaps combined[?], not himself as a punter.

By your calc. a horse will have had to have run 1148 races [what a horse!] before expecting a run of 13 outs :-))