23rd February 2007, 04:54 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ubetido
Hi Crash
Yes this is a bone of contention and not sure how to proceed.
Ones selections have say as this example 40% win strike rate. BUT some may have been odds on others a bit longer and then longer shots.
So if you take out the odds ons and lesser price ones your percentage of winners drops and your price needs to be higher as you stated.
So i am no closer really to getting an edge on the top two. Back to the drawing board i guess..lol
Cheers
ubetido
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Yes, maintaining edge does seem to be the problem. Great simple ideas always seem to come unstuck in the tiny details. In this case it's the lower priced selections that become hardest to cover and these are
quite naturally, the very bets that make up a large slice of the SR's consistency and stability in your idea.
Racehorse punting will always remain a negative expectation game [one of the worst and quite probably 2nd. only to Poker Machines] and genuine edges as opposed to 'perceived' edges, are well and truly quickly exploited with the market rapidly responding and self-correcting back into negative expectation with the edge firmly not on the punter's side at all !
The perceived 'Golden Gooses' in this game are the fantasy that keep the constant stream of new punters and their money coming. The ones making a quid mostly already have a quid, are very, very smart and working on very small margins and large turnovers.
Anyone in this pursuit [winners or losers] for any other reason except for the sheer pleasure of Horse Racing and punting on the outcome, need to have a long talk to themselves in front of a mirror :-)
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