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Originally Posted by mad
Hi JFC,
Could you please provide some assistance with the following problem:
Team A can be layed at $1.40
Team B can be backed at $11
Team C can be backed at $5.1
If i wager $50 on both Team A and Team B to win, i have an average price of $8.05. Am i correct to suggest that i have an edge of approx 16% if i back both Team B and C over laying Team A.
I am of the opinion that Team A will not win. So if i am correct and Team A does not win, then obviously the "play" here is to back both the other teams to win.
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Mad,
If you stake $50 on both B & C then your outcomes are:
-$100 A wins
+$450 B wins
+$155 C wins
Instead you should be staking so that you get a near identical outcome irrespective of whether B or C wins.
In rough figures the odds imply that a C win is twice as probable as B, so the B:C stakes should be 2:1 or 67:33.
The combined $100 stake thus produces:
-$100 A wins
+$263 B wins
+$242 C wins
Not too far away from identical wins for B & C.
Your Edge cannot be quantified unless you have both True Odds and Available Odds.
If you think that in this ~100% market that A is bad value, then the B & C combination would present you with good value.
So your correct strategies are:
- Back B&C as above.
- Lay A
On Betfair I would probably offer both correct strategy Lays and Backs but at minimum stakes. Then after matches I would adjust my positions to try and end up close to :
-$100 A wins
+$250 B or C wins