I agree Michaelg,

But fundamentally there is a basic way of lining them up... It's true in most things in life, if you think of all the possibilities and look at them as layers, if you peel back the layers and examine the grass roots, the "meat of sandwhich" as it were, ratings still stand up..

Based on ratings gained over time an effort, then apply the layers of the posibilities that can go wrong, and still end up with ones that are superior to the rest they should end their race that way...

Like putting a WFA performer into a maiden race at equal weights they should win by streets. While that is an extreme, it still fundamentally holds true that horses tend to perform at a given level and since weight is used as the handicap the performance is relative.. Layers of misfortunes can fog the results but the underlying truth is that ratings are the best guide.

Still I'm looking for "that extra thing", whatever it is that I've missed yesterday but others knew it was on... Why is it so?

Perhaps I'm bitter and twisted, but I do believe in the power of self confidence, I doubt if any sucessful jockeys and trainers would be where they are today if they did not have superior confidence in their own ability... This confidence flows forth in the things they do and while working with horses some of it rubs off onto the horses themselves. After all they're only human, you know.

Still looking for that one more factor....

Kind Regards
OzPunter