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Originally Posted by michaelg
Maybe the form of those two horses provided no clue and therefore the punter/handicapper could not possibly factor the reason into his/her calculations.
Maybe only the trainer/stable was aware of the reason - maybe each horse had responded well to a change of training technique, had been primed for this specific race. In fact, there could be one or several specific reasons that the punter could not possibly be privy to?
If Mark Read, Sportingbet, successful handicappers, etc, had an opening price similar to yours or even rated them softer than you did, then "that indicator you are missing" might also be a factor missing to even the experts and everyone not "in the know"?
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Here's an idea literally straight off the wall... Lets take a stable of horses and day to day they endure training, workouts and exercise... Also they have to sleep !!! Now last week we've had lots of rain and several thunderstorms with lightning, now if anything is going to freek a horse out it's lightning while they need to sleep... Think what lack of sleep does to you next day... Can the horse really put their full effort in? I think not...
I've long held the belief that wet weather affects the training as much or more than the actual track condition on the day... Do you like to go to work on a day when it's cold and pouring down with rain? wouldn't you prefer to stay in your stall? It's two days to raceday and you need a good hit out...
Lack of exercise means your off your feed and lack of high energy feed just before raceday means you cant perform at your best...
So what if we did a study where there is a good or dead track on the day and rain and storms leading up to the day... (like Saturday) I'd be willing to bet that more favourites fail on those days than when the weather has been fine for two weeks or more.
Told you it was off the wall... But it makes sence..
Still, I don't know why so many big punters knew that those two runners were "on"
Regards
OzPunter