11th March 2007, 11:02 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AngryPixie
Ubetido
If you believe as I do that the market price is the best indicator of a runners chance then the answer to your question is no. In my view your 2.2 runner has the same chance of winning in a four horse field as it does in a twenty-four horse field. You'll get some variation due to problems faced in larger fields, but over time I think any variation will even out.
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I differ slightly from this opinion.
From my research, if the price does not blow out with increase in field size, then the chance of the horse winning increases.
So if you have a $1.90 chance in a field of 7, that same priced horse in a field of 24 has a greatly increased chance. |