19th March 2007, 08:56 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OzPunter
Ok, I accept that.. In the ongoing quest for the perfect system one sometimes runs off on tangents that are fruitless endevours...
Now let me rephrase the original.. In my rating system I add two kilos for Beadman and I give Josh Parr and Tye Angland their allowance back because I believe they perform like seasoned jockeys...
On looking at races won by Beadman I'm tempted to give the runners another 2kgs.. That's 4kgs for Beadman or 2.67 lths bonus just because Beadmans riding... Which begs the question "how much does Beadman lift a horse?"
And so we are back full circle.
Kind Regards all
OzPunter
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OzPunter,
If you want to quantify how much he lifts a horse
Ordinary Win Probability 50.44%
Ordinary Place Probability 82.45%
Beadman Win Probability 57.75%
Beadman Place Probability 89.15%
Beadman "lifts" a horse to win an extra 7.31%
Beadman "lifts" a horse to place an extra 6.70% |