Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I'd be very interested in that price conversion, if you can give me a hint to which forum it's on.
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Hi Chrome et al
They're talking about the UK markets but if you yahoo'd for
"using sp odds for forcasting"
you'd find it. Doesn't appear in Google for some reason.
Also you'll find an intersting piece on
"
bayesian inferencing systems"
which is what I was getting at here
http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...46&postcount=11
Quote:
I posted some time ago on this, and whenever there's money for a horse, they just seem to win, I cannot get profitable lay bets at any price!
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Yes I agree with you here. In the UK and here in OZ I'm basically using the same methodology to arrive at my lay selections. It's still a bit early to reach any conclusions in the UK but it doesn't look like I'll get the same strike rate as here in Australia. I believe this is due primarily to me using a minimum and maximum lay price for my Australian lays. Before going live in Australia I observed the same trend you describe. By passing on the shorteners I've managed a 6-7%
* better strike rate than I'm currently getting in the UK. The downside of this is that my Australian average SP is higher, and the POT and advantage
** are lower. But it's quite mature now and is currently showing only a 2% chance of success due to luck. At this stage I've no plans to introduce a minimum lay price in the UK.
The UK Betfair markets are very sophisticated and are starting to interest me a great deal. I think what we're seeing here in Australia is a lack of uninformed money in the Betfair markets, or too many avenues to investment, or a combination of both. There was a short conversation about the Australian Betfair markets on Betfair radio last night between races. Andy (the on duty "pundit", who really know's his stuff BTW) hinted at a big increase in liquidity in the Australian Betfair markets by years end. I've no idea what he bases that comment on but let's hope anyway.
Have a good one.
* Come and get me "Punting Gods"
** I've not actually worked out my UK advantage yet, but it'll be more.