
25th March 2007, 08:38 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Heres something that has been researched.
Faves win the most on the first race of the day & the last race of the day has the lowest SR but its losses are less because the average price is higher.
SO
If one wish to chase Favs, one is better off targeting the last race for all venues, because its average price is greater.
The trick is defining what a true fav from a false fav.
Here are some of my ideas what defines a false Fav.
1) If it is carrying the same weight or less from last start, false Fav. (FF)
2) Is TAB No.7 8 9 ect. FF
3) Resuming in a 1200m+ race. FF
4) Weighted to carry 59kg+, FF
5) If todays price is greater than its last start price , FF
6) If todays Fav was $2.00 & less last start, FF
7) If it has won 3 races in a row without a spell e.g. 111 , FF
8) If it has not been place (123) in either of its last 3 starts, FF
One could apply this to say the paper fav for the last race for all venues 7 days a week.
Keep in mind that a pre-post market is available from the AAP allsports site,
this saves having to go & buy a newspaper to get the pre-post prices.
Try not to bet on any fave paying less than $2.60
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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