Thread: W of P%
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Old 2nd September 2003, 09:25 PM
gunny72 gunny72 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 147
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I like your approach which is in fact looking at the ratio of win% to place%. You are selecting consistent horses that tend to win when they run well. I obtained similar results to you last Sat but I have to admit you got more winners overall, hence my interest.

I have looked at consistency for several years and can honestly say that using it has allowed me to at least beat the take.i.e. I may not be winning but I don't lose either and I have accurate records to prove this over the years. Like you I need another angle to superimpose on the consistency approach to produce a profit.

I have concluded that most of the factors one sees discussed so far have very little relevance because if they did surely several punters would have found a successful way to use them by now and the whole betting world would have collapsed. The only factor I have been able to apply is the principle of obtaining value, so I have been backing the longest price of my top three selections based on consistency.

One other factor that I feel has some bearing is weight analysis a la Don Scott method. I used this for a while and so do a lot of others hence there is little value on selections. Also, I feel the handicapper gets it right most of the time anyway so looking for class-weight anomolies is tedious and time consuming. It worked for Don Scott et al until the method became well known and value went down the gurgler.

There is another angle that I would like to see more discussion on and that is fitness because I feel it is the other major factor apart from value and consistency.

Well I hope you enjoyed my comments.
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