Every Topic,
Fascinating post. It raises for me a question I've had for some time, and a conflict I can't resolve. You're saying (quite correctly) that the betting is determined by the overall weight of opinion, and that weight of opinion is a good guide. And yet in your example the market is created by information not readily obvious in the formguides. OK,then where is this coming from? When you say,...why would any of us go to many hours of agonising effort to pick winners when the work is done for us by people with a greater level of knowledge and information... well who are these people? Are you saying that ultimately the market is formed by a few with some inside information, and then the herd follows along? ... But then, there's lots of insiders, often with conflicting information.

And even if these insiders bet big, is that enough against the mass of opinion based only on formguide info available to all? Please, help me out here.
Cheers,
shoto