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Originally Posted by crash
Chrome,
No mate, you sprooking assumptions based on what you 'feel' is logical. One thing I have learned in this game is that racing 'logic' [most punters follow it] often leads to the poor house.
Someone puts a big bet on and all the wallies [those following the 'smart' money :-) ] jump on board taking whacking big unders and we all know that taking unders leads to the Salvo's ...... Shortener's = [inevitably] Underlays!
The golden rule is : VALUE and most shortener's by their very nature, don't fit that bill.
Opening prices and final prices would be required to prove anything about drifters and firmers.
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Crash,
With all due respect, you seem to be following the tone of the email that was sent to me, that I have proven to be false by making in excess of 20% by doing the exact reverse for almost four months. Apart from the months I have been doing it, I researched 56,000 races - not TAB data but actual bookmakers fluctuations before I even contemplated betting.
It's not based on an assumption, nor on a gut feel, but facts from the track.
If you look at tote fluctuations, that's pretty useless and you do get the worst prices overall.
I pose this question...if there is no value in backing the shorteners, how is it I'm making a profit doing just that. I'm not the only one doing it either. The main difference I'm not getting underlays is because I'm getting close to the best price on those shorteners.
Those "wallies" do not bet on the tote, they bet where the value is, so that process alone belies the fact they are wallies.
Stable money rarely goes on the tote - it goes on the bookies.
For the record I recorded opening price, first fluctuation, second fluctuation and final price of bookies markets - not tote markets.
All that aside, I'm not trying to convert anyone, just pointing out that the email I was sent was not accurate according to my Betfair balance
