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Originally Posted by partypooper
so take any reliable market and only bet when you can obtain double the quote, you have to win.... right?
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Hi PartyPooper,
That's partly right but it goes a lot further... If you bet on something where the price you are getting is greater than the probility of occurance, you'll end up with a surplus. (Winning more than you loose).
The trick then is where do you get a reliable probabilities market?
In fact there are two "markets" at play here, one which is the true probability of a horse winning a race and one which reflects the mood of the betting public, which is a bookies market or a tab market...
Just because a bookie or the TAB has a runner listed at $2.00 dosen't mean that the runner has a 50% chance of winning a race.
The right answer is to obtain a true "probabilities" market and compare it to the bookie "peoples Mood" market and bet only when the price available is better that the probabilities market. The alternative is to "Lay" the runner by betting on betfair, for example...
Every runner is a posibility to make money, either by Betting or Laying depending on the available price vs its probability of winning...
The chalenge is to work out the probability of winning for each runner...
Regards
OzPunter