9th May 2007, 04:20 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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Quote:
Got to admit that all the "Target" betting plans I've come across would eventually go bust on that horror run IF you stuck it out to the bitter end.
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I fully agree with this. Thats why we use multiple banks.
crash,
I use to agree with the maths but I have tested it and the results differ to the maths. I dont care if the maths say I will go broke because I might not go broke for 1000 years. The multiple banks add the safety.
Basically I could work out the maths that prove it but I am not going to bother. it basically goes you assume the bank will rise x% of the time. Eventually we go bust no doubt and this will bge y% of the time. If the profit on x% of the time is greater than the lost y% of the time then you have successfully turned a losing system into a profitable one.
For examply I can double my bank 70% of the time using the retirement plan. I will lose my entire bank 30% of the time before I get a chance to double it. Therefore assuming my bank is $1000. 7 out of 10 times I will double it making $7000 in profit (a return of $14,000 with a restart at $1000 every time it doubles). Then 3 out of 10 times I lose the bank of $1000. So:
Starting stake $10,000
Banks at $1000
Profit of $7000
Loss of $3000
Total : $14,000
Profit of $4000 or 40%.
I am happy for you to prove those maths wrong. ( I wrote this quickly so please check it as it may really be wrong).
have Fun.
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