Crash,

I gave you the maths a few posts back (Post #26)

But to clear things up using proper maths here you go :

Rick Of ruin stats the probability of a run of outs occuring in a given set of runs.
I have chosen 10,000 runs with a win strike rate of 30%. Roughly the win strike rate of favs.

At the retirement plans staking I am using on a $1000 bank you would need a run of 13 consecutive losers to blow your bank.

In a sample of 10,000 races this will happen at least 95 times.

This accounts for 13 * 95 = 1235 of the races. This is 12% of the time. Lets say its double that due to runs of outs that are only brken by 1 win in there somewhere so thats still only 24%.

This leaves you with a 76% success rate for increasing your money in any given series of bets.

Go back to my last post and you will see that if I make a profit 76 times out of 100 and they are at least going to cover the 24% of the time I make a loss then I am going to make a long term profit.

This is obviously a simplified version. Show me the maths where you can prove this is wrong and then give me the result set that proves it is wrong and that it doesn't work as I can provide many result sets where it does work.

I am happy to be proven wrong but at the moment I am the only person showing any maths to prove my point.

Good Luck.