
10th May 2007, 04:14 PM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Everything must have been perfect on the day for Foinavon and terrible for the rest of the field! :-0
Favorites lose so often because the public punter judges [95% of them anyway] the horse on every bit of previous form EXCEPT it's natural pace [not in the form guides] and how that will fit in to the natural pace of the runners it's is about to compete against.
Understanding and knowing a horse's pace is the next step [up] in form study understanding I think and from that position a much truer value of the odds on offer can be judged.
I'm still learning and there is a lot more to learn. Spending a bit of money on a form service that tells me every horse's pace in any race, has been the best investment I've ever made. I've certainly noticed a big improvement in my punting account.
I find great value in targeting backmarkers in outside alleys in races with more than one leader which provides plenty of pace [the backmarker The Jackal winning from the outside barrier last Saturday was a good example of value].
Leaders with a good jockey in races where they are the only leader in the field [jockey can control the pace] is another good earn area too.
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