11th May 2007, 09:10 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wesmip1
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For examply I can double my bank 70% of the time using the retirement plan. I will lose my entire bank 30% of the time before I get a chance to double it. Therefore assuming my bank is $1000. 7 out of 10 times I will double it making $7000 in profit (a return of $14,000 with a restart at $1000 every time it doubles). Then 3 out of 10 times I lose the bank of $1000. So:
Starting stake $10,000
Banks at $1000
Profit of $7000
Loss of $3000
Total : $14,000
Profit of $4000 or 40%.
I am happy for you to prove those maths wrong. ( I wrote this quickly so please check it as it may really be wrong).
have Fun.
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Wesmip,
Above you claim that for a non-positive game:
70% Double Bank
30% Bust Bank
which is obviously a profit.
But in your most recent post you dilute that to
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wesmip1
I found by using the progressive staking plan you will increase your bank at least 70% of the time(when using a timeframe of a week or double the bank as a stop point). So 7 out of 10 weeks you will make a profit. Providing the profit from the 7 successful weeks covers the complete losses of the other 3 weeks you should come out in front.
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i.e.
70% Double Bank or be in front after 7 days.
You cannot infer profitability from that.
In a negative game you would expect that your 3 combined losses would be bigger than your 7 combined wins.
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