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  #29  
Old 24th May 2007, 02:01 PM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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A good way to have a 'sort of' staking progression that isn't loss chasing, is to bet regarding overlay value [a value chasing progression]. You must however be familiar with working out your own priceline on say the first five favorites. From your top 2 or 3 winning chances work out if any of them are an overlay. If more than 3 chances or no overlays [value], forget the race.

If there is an overlay winning selection, you use a flat bet standard [whatever % of bank/pocket you use]. Lets say its $10. You apply to your staking an overlay value progression of say +1, +2, +3 [more if you like]. You could also use A,B,C etc.

Each unit is say $5 [+1], $10 [+2], $15 [+3]. If you think 1 of the runners is an overlay you decide by how much [set a % scale]. If you think the horse is a 20% overlay you add $5 [+1] to your $10 flat bet, 50% would be +$10 [+2] to your $10 flat bet and 70% or more would add $15 [+3], a $25 bet.

If you decide 2 out of the 3 winning possibles are overlays, always back the one you consider the bigger overlay, not the one you 'like' or 'think' might win. 50% of the time you will be wrong, so go with the bigger overlay runner!

The above is pretty much how I often stake my bets. The bigger the overlay[value] the bigger the bet. The idea is that when you win your 1 out of 4 or 5 or whatever your SR is, your staking money is winning [when it wins] on your best overlays at the best outlay. Your getting the best value for your punting $$$.
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