26th May 2007, 10:11 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wesmip1
chinbok,
I have not got track variants to its full potential yet. I have noticed a few places produce very quick (or slow) times though and I do a slight adjustment for it but I would not say it is an accurate adjustment.
There are several ways to work out the track variantions and I am still condering the best way to do it. The options I have include:
1. Avg time of winner over a large number of races (500+ races).
2. Avg time of a consistent horse that has run across multiple tracks (this is good but hard to do ).
3. Track records for each distance.
Can I ask which one you prefer to use ? Depending on which one you use you are always going to get those slight differences which could cause different selections. In some races 0.1 secs can be a huge difference to whether a horse is rated as top selection or 5th selection.
Good Luck.
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re Track Variants
I used to convert the time to a rating, then compare this to the "class par" rating for each race. Then simply calc the raceday ave & hey presto you have a track variant for the day. Its not rocket science, but neither is any form of ratings. This game is 100% opinion & guestimates.
Like Crash, i too gave up because of the time spent on compiling the ratings. You also have to put up with an ongoing series of problems, such as:
* No sectionals on certain days or races.
* The odd hand-timed run or runs per meeting (next to useless)
* The small amount of races per meeting to estimate the track variant
* Rain during a meeting. Times slow down, track deteriorates. On these days time comparisons are meaningless. What was the track variant on race 1? Race 8?
I have some par time info for Belmont & Ascot if interested
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