O.K. Here's the long explanation.....
I had stopped betting yesterday after May's profit evapourated to nil, as I wasn't about to give back any profit from April.
There have been some really strange results for May that defy all previous trends, so we must be flexible and adapt. Rather than backfit or completely change a previously winning formula, I have merely shifted the parameters slightly to smooth out the radical highs and lows to return a more consistent result.
In other words, take a little off the very high profits, to put back into the high losses.
I'm now laying ALL firmers and DRIFTERS under 41%, and backing only DRIFTERS over 40%, so the Drift component remains unchanged.
* I have to reiterate that this has nothing to do with strike rate, it's to do with average dividend, people have been pounding the firmers in May, unlike anything in the last 58,000 races!!!
Here's how it pans out using the original rules:
1930 wagers
85.38 units profit
4.42% POT
The POT here is less than half of the previously published POT, so it tells a very descriptive story.
Here's how it pans out using the revised rules:
1930 wagers
90.17 units profit
4.67% POT
This translates to an April profit of 35.34 units and a May profit of 54.61
So the massive profit in April, won't be seen again unless people abandon plunging onto firmers. I did say that people should be taking the available price or better and not taking less, but it hasn't worked out that way at all - it appears people have been taking a lot less just to get set. It may not be those following this method, it may in fact be others as well - who knows.
