Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Mark
Hi Chrome
Just so I've got this right, you'll be laying all opening favourites unless they drift by 41% or more.
Did you lay Amberino on Saturday? If so, are you able to have a look at your stats for lays that drift less than 40% and are no longer favs. I think the problem is that some favs drift into the 'too big to lay' region, but you are still laying them. How much have you lost since 'black' Saturday 19/5. Not bragging but I'm ahead 15 units since then, not great but better than losing.
Mark
|
Yes Mark you've got it right.
Yes, I layed Amberino on Saturday as the drift was only 30%
Since black Saturday I've lost 23.39 units sticking to the rules.
You've done very well being selective, and I suspect you've got some better prices than me.
I've checked the "too big to lay" suggestion, but the overall stats aren't reflecting that, although May certainly is.
Taking all lays greater than $5.00 at the jump, the profit is some 22 units for 78 wagers. Whereas May, it's breakeven.
However, I do think you're onto something.
I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible, but perhaps when the lays get to $5.00 and upwards, the price accepted on Betfair should be within a certain percentage of the final IAS price.
Definitely food for thought, but I've only recorded the Betfair prices on the actual winners.
I don't know how we should tackle this, but probably avoid the lay if you can't get within 20% of the final price????