This is where I admit that although I have been using your idea, and thank you for it, I have still been doing my ratings, and then betting accordingly.

The 'too big' principal is what I thought you meant when you said not to go chasing prices. As the main aim (I believe) is to mostly lay favs that perhaps shouldn't be, then chasing them out for the sake of laying doesn't sit well. I used Amberino as an example because if my memory serves me correctly you would have had to have gone to something like 8.20 to lay it. To me that is madness, as after all, IAS did have it opening fav, and again if I remember correctly if it had drifted one more tick it would been a back. But I don't know that laying every fav unless they drift 41% is the answer. Think back to last Wednesday when Blue Grouse won the last at Ballarat. It opened equal fav and even after firming I was able to get 5.80. Under your revised rule this would become a lay, and a terrible result. I realise this is only one example but I think you can see what I'm getting at.

I don't think that I've been getting better prices than you but I agree I have been very selective. Today I bet in only 6 races for a 1 unit profit, but I think that betting in every race would have yielded a loss of approximately 12 units. (just remembered you've already said this). On Monday I had 11 bets for 1 unit profit, where betting in every race I would have lost roughly 20 units, and probably given it away.

I sort of use the 20% rule but am not rigid about it. If I like a horse and the system says lay, I simply wait for the next race, similarly if the system (original rules) says back and I don't like it I won't bet. This in particular has saved me from backing a lot of shorties that have been beaten.

I've also had some "half bets". The last at Wyong was a good example today. The opening fav was Enz Of Time @ 4, it blew to 8, and I took 12.5 on BF even though I gave it little chance of winning. So I had half my normal unit.

You may not be interested but you've done me a favour with this system so I will hopefully be able to return the favour. If you like I will email you my ratings for tomorrows races and you may want to incorporate them into your betting. In the last 2 days I have had 3 half bets and got it right twice, and I've passed on 24 races and been right 16 times. Fluke that they're both 66% in my favour. You don't have to be right that often when you're staying out of lays that win.