thekey,

You're lucky...I have the inclination today :smile:

May as well go the whole hog, so here we go!

All Hawkes runners - no price filter
Selections: 822
Winners: 124
Strike Rate: 15.09%
Loss: -$30.70
POT: -3.73%
Average Dividend: $6.38

Comment: Using DiviPlus or similar, you could certainly eek out a small profit, as I've quoted TAB prices here.

All Hawkes First Starters - no price filter
Selections: 57
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 12.28%
Loss: -$13.00
POT: -22.81%
Average Dividend: $6.29

Comment: Forget it!

All Hawkes First Up - no price filters
Selections: 179
Winners: 23
Strike Rate: 12.85%
Loss: $28.90
POT: 16.15%
Average Dividend: $9.04

Comment: all the profit comes from 2 bolters at huge odds, don't get too excited :smile:

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - no price filters
Selections: 765
Winners: 117
Strike Rate: 15.29%
Loss: -$17.70
POT: -2.31%
Average Dividend: $6.39

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filter $1.00 -> $5.00
Selections: 253
Winners: 75
Strike Rate: 29.64%
Loss: -$22.40
POT: -8.85
Average Dividend: $3.07

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filters $5.00 -> $10.00
Selections: 249
Winners: 26
Strike Rate: 10.44%
Loss: -$62.80
POT: -25.22%
Average Dividend: $7.16

Hawkes Runners - no first starters -price filters $10.00 -> $15.00
Selections: 89
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 7.87%
Loss: -$6.10
POT: -6.85%
Average Dividend: $11.84

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filters $15.00 -> $20.00
Selections: 57
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 5.26%
Loss: -$3.90
POT: -6.84%
Average Dividend: $17.70

Hawkes Runners - no first starters - price filters >= $20.00
Selections: 125
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 5.60%
Loss: $89.50
POT: 71.60%
Average Dividend: $30.64

Comment: If you're looking at this area, it's a rollercoaster ride - be prepared for six to eight months of losses before the big cahoona hits.
It may not even happen and you'll be left with a wad of useless tickets.
All the profit came from 1.5 runners.
It may never happen again.

Now I'll get onto first up from a spell of 30 days or more. All these will be non first starters though, as the initial analysis proved it's pretty useless including them unless you have access to inside info.

Hawkes first up - price filter $1.00 -> $5.00
Selections: 49
Winners: 15
Strike Rate: 30.61%
Loss: -$0.50
POT: -1.02%
Average Dividend: $3.23

Comment: I believe that using DiviPlus and only possibly one further filter, this could be profitable over time.

Hawkes first up - price filter $5.00 -> $10.00
Selections: 46
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 4.35%
Loss: -$30.60
POT: -66.52%
Average Dividend: $7.70

Comment: Hopeless.

Hawkes first up - price filter $10.00 -> $15.00
Selections: 22
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 9.09%
Loss: $0.20
POT: 0.91%
Average Dividend: $11.10

Comment: only 2 winners to go on, could go any way in the future.

Hawkes first up - price filter $15.00 -> $20.00
Selections: 15
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 13.33%
Loss: $22.60
POT: 150.67%
Average Dividend: $18.80

Comments: Sounds like this should be included in the glossy brochures - BUT only 2 winners, probably won't win in the long-run.

Hawkes first up - price filter >=$20.00
Selections: 49
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 6.12%
Loss: $55.20
POT: 112.65%
Average Dividend: $34.73
I'll take direct debit :lol:

Comment: same as above - pie in the sky really. But a fun system if you play for fun with $1 bets etc.

SUMMARY:
In summary I think the best potential is to apply some further small filters on first up from spell horses that are well fancied, bet using Diviplus and you have some high strike rate profits. I'd investigate some of the minor losses further but avoid the profitable ones where all the profits come from one or two horses, just not viable to have any confidence in future results.

I really wish I had a database that was at least ten times the size of my current one, so I could draw some more reliable data.
We'll have to wait.

Hope this helps.

(P.S. please don't ask me to compare all the trainers, it took me over an hour to type all this). :lol:

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-09-16 16:08 ]