View Single Post
  #10  
Old 30th June 2007, 02:33 PM
PunterPete PunterPete is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: NSW
Posts: 53
Cool Time Analysis

Wesnip,

Sorry I don't get on this forum much but I did see your post re Track Differences and factors for D,S etc.

I have used winning times and Last 600 times for different distances to get track models for most Metro, Prov and Cty NSW tracks. Tracks do vary substancially both for Time and 600T over distance. I strongly suggest you compare the same / similar class races to get par times for each track distance (difficult for cty tracks). My track models are for 50m incruments for each track.

I spent about 8 years adjusting mine but I now realise I should have stopped adjusting a lot earlier. As long and you are consistent in the way you create the track models and have basis models done thats enough.

What is just as important is daily varient factors (DVF) - To do these you need to compare the long term average time for good condition and same distance vs the days time and 600t for the same distance. You cannot use fixed deductions for Dead/Slow reliably. The most thorough way to get the DVF is to review each race after it is done to get the DVF.

Once you have both Daily varience factors (these can even change for each race in one day) and your track models you can do speed ratings with a bit of confidence.

Please note after over 10 years exp of doing this its still not going to make you rich unless your game enough to put large dollars down. I do make money from my analysis but its no where near as much and my day job. (You can impress your friends with it though). It does work better when you have a consistent dry season. Slow and Dead tracks luck comes in a lot more.

Good luck with it.
__________________
Regards,
Pete
Reply With Quote