fallback positions. dont bet horses that have a series of failures.
dont look for reversals from the above.
good horses fresh and reasonable price.
personally i only look for group and listed horses. i disregard all others. i know there is a risk particularly from up and coming horses. (archave today is an example)i will wait for them to qualify.
generally i dont back stayers fresh as the number that win first up is not profitable.
statistically speaking on using my type of selections
the percentage of winners over a 18month period of testing listed horses is.
within 8 weeks of last qualifying. 33%
of winners- up to 12 months of last qualifying date.= 80% ...two years = additional 15%. over two years additional 5%.
total number of winning races 1200.
above example indicates the depletion of ability as time goes on.
also defines the adage that most horses probably only have one or two good seasons.
the further away from that good season the less likely the horse is to win.
hope that is helpful.