Michael G - Yes, the system is restricted, in my case I focus only on Class 6 and above and I ignore 2yo and 3yo only events so exposed form is key, I'm using level stakes for my calcs ie: same amount on each of the four horses, race after race, irrespective of results - not actually betting anything as yet! V interested in comments re Mark Read's approach - the difference is he is assessing the odds of his top 3 picks based on his evaluation of horses in a specific race I suspect - in my case I'm simply assuming my 68% strike rate is valid and continues into the future and using that 68% "chance" of success as the basis for the value comparison - not sure yet that this is correct or valid hence the post.

Bagwan - thanks for the words of encouragement and advice - I'm on a losing role now following a fantastic run of results so great to be brought down to earth so quickly!