Crash

You've got me worried now mate! Quick calc suggests average Div of $7.8, total races in this sample is actually 181. Not all races require all 4 horses to be backed - the system has a cut off price of $40 for a horse so anything over is a no bet (so sometimes only 2 horses backed and sometimes 3) - my ratings have thrown up a surprising number of ridiculous longshots which I don't bet. Having said that doing a box trifecta of my top 4 has produced a 7000-1 Trifecta of late and yes, I didn't invest! Infact a box trifecta on each race returns a POT significantly into 3 figures but if you exclude the 7000-1 tri then things looks very good but not the stellar retuns produced by including it! Quinnella results are good too interestingly enough.

If I was to restrict my bets to (say) only horses priced $16 and under, this would perhaps be more realistic test as longshot winners (and there's been a few) are eliminated from the results thus meaning less skewed result - the POT drops to around 9% (last time I checked) so maybe that is a good reality check.

The ratings are my own and fairly simply contructed so no rocket science here I'm afraid - hence keen to get feedback such as yours as I am a pessimist by nature and, like you, can't believe a 20%+POT would be achievable in a bigger sample by backing 4 horses. I'd love however to have the time to filter the four horses down to maybe one or two only with some proper form study as I do think that's got to be a way to some solid and regular profit but............

Cheers