Thekey,

You are exactly right there with prices. I used to ignore them but now I pay a LOT of attention to what the market is saying.

I think Shoe-In wrote to never change your mind based on price - I now have the opposite view and one of my final checks before placing a bet is what does the market price indicate about the chances. Basically i have a "Reverse Price Filter" - if my selection is over a certain price then NO BET. It has improved my strike rate, my profit and my consistancy enormously (and hence my confidence!). Unless you have insider information (direct from a stable, not from some joker on SKY!) then you have to assume that the market as a whole has much better information than you as an individual so if the market is pricing your selection at double your price then the market probably knows something you don't!

It certainly is possible to make money out of the longer odds horses - but I have found it much easier and less stressful to concentrate on the favourites. You still need to do your analysis and work but it is easier (IMHO) to find the value. Also a 60% strike rate is better for the heart than a 15% strike rate!

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson