Betting level stakes with Mad Gambler's system would be safe assuming the strike rate and average price are consistant, but pretty pointless as far as I can tell. If $2.25 is the assumed average price of a winner at a 48% strike rate then level stakes betting would result in only an 8% profit, which seems fairly low really, though some might be happy with that. Realistically, the 48% strike rate seems quite high, and most likely is just an anomaly, especially considering that it is the result of only 25 paper bets. Mad Gambler needs to monitor his system on paper much longer so he can establish what the long term strike rate and average price really are. If the long term strike rate drops to 44% or less, or if the average price drops to $2.08 or less, then the system will lose money in the long run even at level stakes.

I'm not sure I entirely follow what Mad Gambler is saying regarding his staking idea. He says a winner anywhere in the series makes a profit. Unless there's something I'm not understanding, using the 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55 sequence, assuming an average price of $2.25 means that any winner after 3 or more consecutive losing bets will result in a loss.

Bet #1. 1 unit. If win, then profit = 1.25 units. If lose, then total loss = 1
Bet #2. 1 unit. If win, then profit = 0.25 units. If lose, then total loss = 2
Bet #3. 2 units. If win, then profit = 0.50 units. If lose, then total loss = 4
Bet #4. 3 units. If win, then loss = 0.25 units. If lose, then total loss = 7
Bet #5. 5 units. If win, then loss = 0.75 units. If lose, then total loss = 12
Bet #6. 8 units. If win, then loss = 2.00 units. If lose, then total loss = 20
Bet #7. 13 units. If win, then loss = 3.75 units. If lose, then total loss = 33
Bet #8. 21 units. If win, then loss = 6.75 units. If lose, then total loss = 54
Bet #9. 34 units. If win, then loss = 11.5 units. If lose, then total loss = 88
Bet #10. 55 units. If win, then loss = 19.25 units. If lose, then bank is lost.

And to work out how often one would expect to bust their bank with this system, the calculation would be 0.52 multiplied by itself 10 times = 0.0014555, which would be roughly once in every 687 bets, though there's no reason why 2 series of 10 straight losers couldn't occur within a few dozen bets of each other.

I hope all this makes sense. I'd suggest steering clear of progressive betting, as sooner or later, the unexpected run of outs will occur and bust the bank, and your confidence. Again, just my thoughts, and good luck if you decide otherwise.