26th July 2007, 01:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,430
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TWOBETS
I have noticed that with all my wacko systems I have concocted over the years that the length of time required to test the system is inversely proportional to the average odds of your runners.
Thus if you have a system following odds on runners I believe a shorter sample will be quite indicative of future results. Conversely the longer priced investments will require far longer trial periods.
Just my observation.
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I think that observation is much deeper than you think TWO BETS, in fact that's where I picked up my nom de plume.
i.e. take ALL 1-1 moneys shots S/R = about 45% (not exact figures)
take ALL 2-1 shots S/R = about 30% ''
take all 3-1 shots S/R = about 22% ''
see what I'm getting at? just consolidates what you are saying. if your system targets 10-1 shots you will have a s/r (over time) of something like 7-8%, regardless.
of course the idea of your system is to lift that s/r 11-12%, then youre cooking with gas for life ey?
ps, i did the exercise using pre-post prices and the result was almost identical s/r AND LOT
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