Dale - be interesting to see what the actual strike rates are, fyi my latest are as follows so maybe not too dissimilar to yours?

17%	14%	21%	12%
1	2	3	4

I'm running the same ratings formulas with some minor tweaks for low class races and the results for top rated are much better but overall returns (backing all 4) not so good even though the strike rate is better at 75%. Sample size (50 races) means this needs longer to settle down.

37.7%	5.7%	11.3%	20.8%
1	2	3	4

Bhagwan. Thanks again for your suggestions in your recent post. I reran the numbers based on your suggestions and sadly the POT reduced a little but I didn't manage to utilise the $4 second fave cut-off as you suggested (too hard for my poor excel skills) so maybe that explains it.

I did, however, run the numbers based on limiting bets to only backing all four when combined odds for top 4 rated were better than my current strike rate (64%) - the POT rose to 43% for 100 races. This seems to "prove" the theory I was keen to test in my initial post ie: the concept of value may apply to combined odds just as much as to individual odds but I still struggle with this a bit and suspect I may just have a lucky sample!

Anyway, v.grateful for your thoughts on this - will keep plugging away and see how it goes.

Cheers