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Originally Posted by Ricardo8
interesting topic...
i dabbled in all this about 1 yr ago lindsay, completely understand all you are saying and suggesting and the like.
i wondered at the time: when can we get this guy out to oz and make some real money. i considered getting hold of him and putting him on a plane myself.
thinking that liquidity would have evolved by now (it will eventually im sure).
but that didnt even concern me, was happy to stay up late and become a pommy racing fanatic for a while.
then of course...WA bans betfair, and here i am betting wins on low priced favs for a living using ias and behind the times tab's. (well not for a living, but you get the jist).
my own little spreadsheet is attached if interested.
i still follow major pre-post markets and write down my fantasy 'bets' etc as if id be greening up one off positions. this to me would be the way i would do it.
my particular favourite was picking Oscar Perriero at 171 during last years
TDF (im a big cycling fan), and then "laying" him, so to speak, at $2, a day before Landis filled himself full of drugs and won that miracle stage.
anyway, that doesnt matter, what matters is their is surely such simple and easy money to be made doing such, at low risk.
a recent example:
prior to weekend, Marasco at 11 for cox plate. after his run, $6. so easy to predict such things. same with haradasun.
jap horses for cups at 20.30.40-1....after weekend, all at 15's of thereabouts.
what could be easier?
problem still revolves around aust.liquidity and fact the lay price is often many points above back price still. this smooths out as event gets closer and volume gets greater.
anyway, love the discussion, keen to hear more as you evolve.
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Funny that, I also had the thought of getting him out here for a Seminar, even if I were the only attendee, it would be well worth it.
I'm sure if enough people paid for his airfare, accomodation and expenses, he'd consider it. And let me say, I wouldn't do this unless I were absolutely sure, it would be worth it.
The independant reviews are all glowing, his seminars are always booked out, and the only unhappy customers, are those that can't attend because of lack of vacancies. I think that speaks volumes.
As to liquidity, that will plague us for a very long time unfortunately.
a) There just isn't the same population
b) It's way too early for the UK guys to get involved in a big way
c) spring Carnival is about the only time the volumes are any where near reasonable.
You can pick it, when the overround is still sitting at 118% with 5 minutes to go. UK markets will be less than 105% with 15 minutes to go.
The problem is, as you state, the complete price discrepancy between back and lay. You can't trade with confidence in that kind of market.
Well, maybe some can, but I can't
So, the upshot is, I am now trading on the UK circuit and 1/10th of my race investment on Saturdays in Australia.
However, because of the anomolies in the market, I'm always scanning the low liquidity weekday markets for opportunities (such as I described a few posts ago).
When we finally get in-running trading, a whole new world will be available and the potential for trading multiplied hugely.