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Originally Posted by horsewatcher
i have been told the larger the field and the shorter the price the horse is , the more likely the horse will win, i have seem a $2.. win in a 19 field very easily in a top race, which means the opposition must be poorer , in many melbourne cups the favourite starts at over $7 and often loses. it seems that a horse with exceptional ability ,will over come all negatives in a race and win , often in very small fields the favourite loses , last week in a 4 horse race, the favorite came last, in a big prize money, large fields race, the race is run often at a true pace , and the short price favorite wins.
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You're right on the money horsewatcher.
An even money shot in a 19 horse field is like a $1.20 shot in a six horse race (or less). When you do the conversions, it's not hard to figure out why so many hotpots go down in small fields. The shortest priced winner in recent times in the Melbourne Cup was Might and Power and we all know what he did.
Providing you get top odds, this approach is a gold mine.
And again true, a good horse will overcome bad luck in running, those that don't, don't have the ticker or ability, so go out short prices next start and flop (often, not always, but more than they should).
Not blowing wind up your post, just what you posted was spot on
I've landed good winners in Group 1 events all over the world using this approach, recently in Germany and the UK. After converting the prices for field size and getting top odds, it's been a steady stream of profit.
Then you've got Sunline in the 2000 Memsie, Star Of Florida, Scenic Shot, and of course Gold Edition in the Gp 2 Surround.