28th August 2007, 04:22 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,430
|
|
The Power Of Positive Gearing
a.k.a Parrondo's Paradox
All hail Juan Parrondo who invented:
Given two games, each with a higher probability of losing than winning, it is possible to construct a winning strategy by playing the games alternately.
How does this apply to horseracing?
How can we apply this using a Betting Exchange?
All will be revealed bit by bit.
Firstly, a couple of questions....
Suppose the odds on the favourite were $3.30 on one of the totes.
Suppose someone offered you $3.00 as back odds, BUT if the horse doesn't run a place you get your money back!
Would you take the bet?
Hint: 50% of favourites that run a place actually win
How about $2.98, would you still make the bet?
Perhaps $2.90?
Even $2.80?
How about it folks, what do you reckon?
A little bit more.....
Now suppose there was an odds on favourite say $1.40 (an example from last night in South Africa), and the same offer was made, say $1.20 odds, but if the horse doesn't run a place you get your money back.
Would this look as good as the first scenario, even though these horses have a statistically 65% chance of winning if they run a place?
|