Thread: Strike rates
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Old 30th August 2007, 01:02 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
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wesmip1, not exactly the answer you were looking for but a few years ago I did a lot of research on pre-post favs, & 2nd favs using various publications for comparison, the first thing that became apparent was that there was very little difference in S/R & LOT between publications, and aslo very little difference between (S/R & LOT) pre-post v actual favs.

So believing I could tilt the S/R in my favour I picked just one pre post fav per day, I did this over an extended time (on paper) after 50 or so hypothetical bets a pattern emerged, i.e. the S/R & LOT were the same as if all pre-post favs had been backed, or if any number had been picked randomly or otherwise. I carried on for several hundred Hypo bets but it was obvious what was happening and I gave up.

I also tried "handicapping" the pre-post favs sorta, and yes, again S/R increased, but the LOT increased in proportion again.

Now the disconcerting thing is that when the actual pre-post price was taken into consideration the S/R increased dramatically the lower the pre-post odds, but the LOT increased in proportion.

What I'm suggesting is that no matter how many bets you place per day your overall S/R and LOT (or POT if you are a clever boy) over an extended period of time will always remain the same???
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