11th April 2002, 07:33 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 83
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Each way, you said, "As I've suggested, perhaps the "experts" should select one horse per race that they believe offers the most value to punters. Most of the people who follow these tipsters are generally small punters who would prefer to support their favourite tipsters selection at 7/1 rather than 10/9."
Far be it from me to support the media tipsters but the difficulty with providing "value" runners is that often you don't know which horses are going to be value until the market is framed 30 minutes before a race.
A favourite is only favourite because it is the horse most people think will win the race. It's not necessarily the horse that has the best chance of winning. Good ratings are about accurately assessing the winning chances of every runner in a race. The key is to then compare your opinion with that of your bookmaker. As Mr Logic says, if you've assessed a horse at 6/1 and the bookies think it's only a 12/1 chance, you back it. It may not be your top rated runner but it provides much better value, especially if you can rely on your ratings.
A fundamental problem with tipping services is that they tell you which horses to back but they don't tell you what price to accept as a minimum.
It's fine to know when to bet, much more important to know when NOT to bet. That's why 3,4 or 5 rated runners (with their assessed prices) is a valuable punting tool.
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