8th September 2007, 12:58 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by michaelg
Looking at the France vs Argentina rugby World Cup match on Betfair.
France can currently be bet at $1.18 and Argentina layed at $7.60.
To win $15 by betting on France, the outlay/liability is $85.
To win $15 by laying Argentina, the liability is $99.
The draw bet/lay price is almost negligible ($44 bet, $48 lay)
To my way of thinking, if one wanted to back France it would be much better to do so than laying Argentina, even though the latter includes the draw.
Have I got it right?
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Michael,
This is Parrondo's Paradox at work.
Sometimes it is better to backyour selection, other times it is better to lay the opposition.
Look at the liability vs profit and work out which is the better alternative.
By zig zagging depending on the liability, you can make a much better profit. |