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Originally Posted by Beagle
I understand all that has been written here but for heaven's sake, doesn't a 3/1 winner that "should have been 2/1" give the punter the same return as a 3/1 winner that "should have been 10/1"?. I don't care what the "experts" have rated a horse at. If I think it can win I will back it and ratings can go and whistle. When you pick up the paper and check the tipster's polling panel you will hardly ever find agreement across the board so who's right and who's wrong? In most cases not many of them.
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This is all good if you only bet on one race and then give punting away.
Winners are winners regardless of price...that is true Beagle.
But look at it this way. I'll give you 2 points less than the TAB on all your selections.Would you be happy with that?
You must consider all your bets, not just the winners.
If you invested $25,000 in the last 12 months and are returned $30,000 then if you got say 9-4 about those winners rather than the 3-1 , you would have lost money.
Look at this scenario as well.
There are 3 runners in a race.
You think No 3 has no possible chance of winning.
You think No 1 has a good chance and should win.
But you also think that No 2 has almost as good a chance as No 1
The tote is showing No 1 at $1.50 and No 2 at $3.20
Which horse would you back?
This is how Value can be seen.
Can you now see that No 2 is VALUE and No 1 is not, based on your thinking about the race?