partypooper,

thats right .... so unless you can come up with a different set of probabilties to the market you are always going to revert back to the LOT of 15% which is the takeout.

But for those who understand this you can make money both backing and layng selections using a combination of sources for placing your bets.

TwoBets,

Look at the second example which uses actual ratings. You will see the strike rate diminishes as the Price increases which in turn means you need to find higher prices horses to get value which further decreases the strike rate which means finding higher price horses, and so on and so on. A system selection needs to be evaluated on its chance in the race compared to the other horses, not to the strike rate of the system.

There is a big difference to a horse rated top in a 6 horse field to a horse rated top in a 20 horse field. If you used the system strike rate you would assume the same odds for value regardless of field size. Hope that explains it a bit clearer.

Good Luck.