16th September 2007, 06:54 AM
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Suspended
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wesmip1
4442 Selections
Strike Rate : 7%
WIN ROT = 85%
I think this demonstrates my point .... As the odds increase the probability of a seleciton winning decreases. Therefore if you do not know the "true" chance of a horse you are not getting value.
Good Luck.
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What it demonstrates Wesnip, is that the percentage takeout of that tote is 15%.
They return 85% when your selections are blindly picked.
Strike rate must always be looked at in association with the profit on turnover.
If profit on turnover is negative, then the system must lose without some sort of special staking technique.
And even then I'm not sure if it can win. |