26th September 2007, 01:48 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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You'll get matched for whatever amount you want, but the odds will kill you slowly but surely.
In fact it is very hard to eek out a profit on the top end of the market, but it can be done.
Here's a great piece of advice I can give you for nothing...
You must get close to the very best price available to have any hope of beating the higher odds on Betfair. In reality, it really is a backers market.
The bias favours the backers heavily.
The layers face a real uphill battle.
It's easy to pick losers, but when the odds are so far against you, just one mistake (or even a couple) can pretty much wipe out a huge chunk of profit.
Look at it this way, there's almost no hope of laying a 50/1 shot at 50/1, it's more likely to be upwards of 200/1.
If only one of them wins in 100 races (providing a nice profit at SP or TAB prices), @ 200/1 it's wipeout, you just can't get it back by continually laying so far over the odds.
So how is it possible to get within a bull's roar of realistic prices?
This is the million dollar question!
You'll likely find that all but the fancied runners will drift quite a bit.
Here's how I approach it, with a real example recently...
Horse is 40/1 with the bookies.
I lay it for $100 at 85/1 on Betfair.
Horse drifts to 120/1 on Betfair.
I back it for $50.00 @ 120/1.
The nett result, is that I have layed the horse for $50.00 @ 50/1 with no hope of it being matched at that price prior.
I have beaten the huge percentage against me, down to a much smaller and tolerable margin.
O.K. that's pretty good, but what if it firms in further instead of drifting in the market?
You'll find that those at big odds will almost always drift, I don't recommend this strategy on the shorties, as it can go either way.
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