Can't say I agree.
Following a top stable does not mean you're any better off usually.
The horses are more overbet than other neddies.
If you were to take the odds offered by bookmakers, the TAB, or Betfair and add the over round or commission - overall you'd be very close to break even or above.
This indicates the accuracy of the price to true chance.
While there are vast areas of under or over pricing with regard to individual horses or races, as a mass, there is no more accurate predictor on volume of bets.
I've just done an exercise with regards to four commercial seperate ratings strategies, and while they do highlight certain areas of value, they certainly haven't been able to beat the overall market consensus.
You can work out true odds before a race...
If you're getting prices on horses and making a profit, you're getting over the true odds, if you're making a loss, you're getting unders.
So, you know that if you keep taking the odds you've been taking, for the sorts of horses or races you've been investing in, then the result will be the same overall.
It's not the horse, or the race that counts, it's the end result.
True odds are not about predicting winners as much as predicting profit.
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