2nd October 2007, 03:25 PM
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Suspended
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
How can anyone work out true odds BEFORE a race when the result will be dependent on immediate circumstances that happen DURING the race, that we the punter will not know until AFTER the race?
A horse you work out as having true odds of say 10/1 that loses it's jockey during the race, has not got a 10/1 chance of winning, it has no chance of winning. So your 'true' odds would have been false and therefore not true odds at all.
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Yes this is true for one particular race.
But then on the next race the jockey falls off another horse and the next race a different jockey.
It is over a period of races that your assessed odds will show themselves as being accurate indicators by the profit or loss on turnover made. |