I see what you're getting at Crash, no you won't get the "true" odds of a particular horse or event accurate all the time, or in fact all that often.
It's the group of events where true odds can be discovered.
I ask myself if a horse is even money, do I think that this horse would win fifty out of 100 runnings of this race, or more?
Could a 10/1 shot win one in 10 if this race were run 100 times, this does not mean the odds were wrong if the horse wins or loses, because adds are always speculation of future earnings, not a predictor of independant results.
I don't think anyone will get within a bull's roar of true odds for each event.
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